CMI’s Earnings Track Record
Cummins (CMI), classified in the Industrials / Industrial – Machinery sector, enters its upcoming earnings window with an unblemished recent record. Over the last eight reported quarters, the company has beaten EPS estimates in 8 out of 8 quarters, a 100% beat rate, and the average earnings surprise across that same stretch is 15.6%. The post-earnings price reaction has also leaned higher on average: the mean 5-day price move in the five trading days after earnings is 5.3%, with the drift direction classified as up.
The last four releases show both the consistency and the variability. On 2026-05-05, CMI reported actual EPS of $6.15 versus an estimate of $5.63, a 9.2% surprise; the stock rose 6.04% the next day and 4.38% over the following five days. On 2026-02-05, actual EPS of $5.81 against a $5.10 estimate produced a 13.9% surprise, a 6.86% next-day gain, and an 8.9% five-day gain. On 2025-11-06, $5.59 versus $4.83 was a 15.7% surprise, yet the next-day move was only 2.28% and the five-day drift was just 1.01%. On 2025-08-05, the largest surprise in the sample—$6.43 versus $5.23, or 22.9%—drove a 2.26% next-day move but a 6.92% five-day move. That divergence shows the post-earnings path is not a straight line, even when the headline beat is large.
Options-Flow Dynamics Around the 2026-08-04 Print
CMI’s next scheduled earnings report is 2026-08-04 before the open, and the consensus EPS estimate is $7.21. Options implied volatility tends to move into the event as market makers price the binary risk of earnings around the print. With the stock at $664.65 and the 50-day EMA at $665.47, CMI is sitting almost exactly at its intermediate-term average, and the RSI at 48.6 leaves the daily condition neutral. The Aug. 4 expiration and adjacent weekly chains should therefore embed a meaningful event-risk premium.
Traders can use the historical 5.3% average post-earnings drift as a benchmark for how much the options market is currently pricing, though that comparison is descriptive, not predictive. Options-flow data in the days leading into Aug. 4 may also show whether market participants are positioning for direction, hedging existing exposure, or attempting to collect elevated premium around the report.
What a Disciplined Trader Watches
A disciplined trader treats the 100% beat rate and the 5.3% average five-day drift as historical measurements, not a guarantee. The first thing to track is the size of any beat or miss versus the $7.21 estimate, and then how the price response compares with prior reactions. The second is post-announcement volume: muted volume after a beat can signal the move is being faded, while expanding volume can suggest follow-through is building. Third, watch the interaction with the $665.47 50-day EMA and the $664.65 pre-report price; an earnings-driven break or rejection around that level can shape the next swing. Finally, because the five-day drift in the last four quarters ranged from 1.01% to 8.9%, risk management should account for both a fast initial gap and a slower multi-day drift.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is CMI’s historical earnings beat rate and average surprise?
Over the last eight reported quarters, CMI beat EPS estimates in 8 out of 8 quarters, a 100% beat rate. The average earnings surprise across that period was 15.6%.
How has CMI stock performed during the five trading days after recent earnings reports?
Across the last eight quarters, the average 5-day price move after earnings is 5.3%, classified as up. In the last four quarters, the five-day drift ranged from 1.01% on 2025-11-06 to 8.9% on 2026-02-05.
When is CMI’s next earnings report and what is the consensus EPS estimate?
CMI is scheduled to report on 2026-08-04 before the open. The consensus EPS estimate is $7.21.
For a deeper dive into institutional positioning and the broader analyst context, readers should consult the full institutional verdict page.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | $6.15 | $5.63 | +9.2% | +6.04% | +4.38% |
| 2026-02-05 | $5.81 | $5.1 | +13.9% | +6.86% | +8.9% |
| 2025-11-06 | $5.59 | $4.83 | +15.7% | +2.28% | +1.01% |
| 2025-08-05 | $6.43 | $5.23 | +22.9% | +2.26% | +6.92% |
| 2025-05-05 | $5.96 | $4.91 | +21.4% | - | - |
| 2025-02-04 | $5.16 | $4.7 | +9.8% | - | - |
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