CMI

How CMI Has Traded Around Earnings

CMI has cleared the published consensus EPS estimate in every one of its last eight reported quarters, a beat rate of 8/8 (100%). The average earnings surprise across those eight prints is 15.6%, and the average five-day price move after the release is 5.3% to the upside. Those numbers describe a consistent pattern: the company has reported a positive surprise, and the stock has tended to extend higher over the following week.

The last four quarters show how that pattern has played out in detail. On 2026-05-05, Cummins reported $6.15 per share versus the $5.63 estimate, a 9.2% beat, and the stock rose 6.04% the next session and 4.38% over the following five trading days. The 2026-02-05 print delivered $5.81 against $5.10, a 13.9% surprise, followed by a 6.86% one-day gain and an 8.9% five-day gain. In 2025-11-06, the company earned $5.59 versus $4.83 (15.7% surprise), with the stock up 2.28% the next day and 1.01% over the next five sessions. The 2025-08-05 quarter produced $6.43 against $5.23 (22.9% surprise), with the next-day move at 2.26% and the five-day drift at 6.92%. The five-day drift is classified as "up," but the next-day reactions ranged from roughly 2.3% to 6.9%, showing that even a clean beat does not guarantee a uniform one-day gap.

Options Flow Into the 2026-08-04 Report

The next scheduled report is on 2026-08-04 before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $7.21. As that date approaches, options flow becomes the main channel through which traders express direction and volatility views. Implied volatility is usually bid higher ahead of the event, so the market prices a larger expected one-day move than the stock's normal realized volatility. Heavy call flow can lift implied upside expectations, while put buying raises the premium on downside hedges.

The historical 5.3% average five-day post-earnings drift gives a baseline for evaluating the options market's priced move. If front-week straddles imply a one-day move well above the historical next-day range of 2.26% to 6.86%, traders are paying a richer premium for the binary outcome. If the unofficial consensus estimate differs from the published $7.21 figure, directional flow may also reveal how the real money is positioned relative to the published bar. Against the current price snapshot of $648.48, an RSI of 43.1, and a 50-day EMA at $666.77, flow can reflect either a rebound thesis or hedging against a technical breakdown into the print.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined approach treats the 8/8 (100%) beat rate and the 5.3% average five-day up-drift as historical observations, not a forecast. The first item to monitor is the trajectory of the $7.21 consensus EPS estimate heading into 2026-08-04. Upward revisions raise the bar and can turn a beat into a sell-the-news reaction, while downward revisions lower the hurdle and can make a clean beat look stronger.

Second, compare the options market's implied one-day move with the historical next-day range of 2.26% to 6.86%. A front-week straddle implying a move at the top of—or above—that range signals that traders are paying a high premium for the binary outcome. After the event, the five-day window becomes the next reference point: against the historical average of 5.3%, you can gauge whether the reaction is extending or reversing.

Third, watch how price interacts with the 50-day EMA at $666.77. With CMI at $648.48 and an RSI of 43.1, the stock is below that moving average heading into the report, so the post-earnings move can either accelerate a return toward that level or confirm below-average momentum. Volume, open-interest changes, and whether the drift classification of "up" is sustained into the close of the fifth day all help determine whether the pattern is repeating or breaking. For a deeper dive into analyst ratings, institutional ownership changes, and the current sell-side verdict, see the full institutional verdict page.